Ethanol Affecting Tortilla MakersInvestors who got on the ethanol bandwagon after LAST year's State of the Union address had a wild ride indeed. The frothiest (no pun intended) of them all was Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX). The Fresno, CA-based marketer and refiner started 2006 in the 11 range. After Bush's State of the Union, it nearly quadrupled to 42 by May. As of Friday, it closed at 16.47. Investor enthusiasm waned as oil prices waxed. The cycle may start again this year, with not only Bush but also every single presidential candidate LITERALLY buying the farm as they campaign in Iowa.

This column is not about ethanol, however, but instead about following the herd when it comes to clean tech investing. Even though I have mixed feelings about ethanol (a subject for another post), do not get me wrong. Clean Energy is going to be THE defining industry of the next few decades. It will be to the 21st century what the automobile was to the 20th and the railroad to the 19th. The problem is that just about everybody has figured that out by now, giving rise to valuations have no basis in reality.

Some fresh thinking is in order. If you still want to capitalize on a 21st century mega-trend, you will need to start thinking downstream. Instead of investing in the darlings, think about how the trend will affect other companies. For example, Jim Rogers, the famed commodity investor and world traveler, mentioned on CNBC that one of his best oil bets was actually in sugar companies. Why? Sugar cane is the primary feedstock for ethanol in Brazil. Subtrends, too, will provide ample opportunity. High corn prices, abundant wind resources, and other incentives will bring prosperity to rural American unseen since the 1950's. Which companies can benefit from that? Retailers based in the Heartland? Car and Truck Dealers? Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Solar stocks are a bit bumpy now, too. The recent rise in the price of silicon has been well-chronicled. Which companies are positioned to either provide a substitute, or service a workaround? This much, I know. The solar bandwagon is here to stay.

The rising price of corn might provide opportunities for an investor. It has gone from $2 to $4 per bushel since 2004, putting undue stress on several other economic factors. I am afraid that investing in corn commodities, corn agribusiness, and other corn-based businesses may have already experienced the price run-up. However, it won't take much before, for example, soft drink manufacturers switch their formulas back to sugar. In the 1980's, the beverage makers decided to use corn syrup thanks to the high cost of sugar (caused by the type of protectionism that is now affecting corn). Will soft drink makers and confectioners benefit or suffer? How about bakers? The tortilla-based economy just might make a large switch to flour, instead of corn, as Mexicans riot over the skyrocketing price of corn tortillas. Far-fetched? For the first time since Aztec times, the Mexican government is now importing corn because so much of their domestic crop is earmarked for ethanol production.

The Clean Tech megatrend does not mean the laws of supply and demand are going to take a vacation. You still need to think a few moves ahead of everybody else to make a buck.

What do you think? Where are the undiscovered opportunities, the less glamorous by-products of the Clean Tech revolution?

Mark Brandon is the owner of First Sustainable, a socially responsible investment advisory, and the author of the Sustainable Log newsletter and blog. His columns appear Mondays at Green Options.